论寓教于乐的教学理念与设计

“寓教于乐”是一种理想的教育教学目标，也是大学教学改革的重点，教育游戏的出现为教学拓宽了道路，实践着“寓教于乐”的理念。通过参阅大量文献资料，对教育游戏的概念与现状进行了阐述，并提出了教育游戏的设计理念与策略，为教育游戏的设计提供指导和帮助。     

Optimal stopping in software testing

In this paper we address the problem of how to decide when to terminate the testing/modification process and to release the software during the development phase. We present a Bayesian decision theoretic approach by formulating the optimal release problem as a sequential decision problem. By using a non‐Gaussian Kalman filter type model, proposed by Chen and Singpurwalla (1994), to track software reliability, we are able to obtain tractable expressions for inference and determine a one‐stage look ahead stopping rule under reasonable conditions and a class of loss functions. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

THE CONCEPT OF NUCLEAR LEARNING

This article seeks to elucidate the concept of nuclear learning. It explores both the “nuclear” and the “learning” aspects of the concept. On the nuclear side, it distinguishes between learning basic facts about nuclear arms and drawing inferences about the larger implications of those facts. On the learning side, it discusses three issues: whether to use the term in a normative or value-neutral manner; the difference between learning that leads to a change in means versus learning that leads to a re-evaluation of ends; and whether learning only takes place at the level of individuals or whether there can also be learning by collective entities. The article argues there is no universal best answer to these questions and that the particular concept of learning that should be employed depends on the goals of the analyst. If the goal is to reduce the chances of nuclear war, however, one type of learning that will be important to consider is whether there is shared, cross-national learning.     

Learning in counterinsurgency: what do we really know?

Since the publication in 2002 of John Nagl's Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife, organizational learning has been widely presumed an important ingredient for success in counterinsurgency. But sampling the literature from before and after this time shows remarkably little analytical treatment of the issue of learning and even confusion over what it may mean. This article considers the theories, hypotheses, research strategies, threats to validity, methods of measurement, treatments of time, and general lack of statistical analysis in the work to date and recommends a course for future research.     

新疆石河子内初班学生的学习适应性研究

为深入了解内初班学生的学习适应性状况,本研究分别在石河子市四所内初班承办学校中,严格按照分层抽样的方法选取了294名学生作为被试,采用《学习适应性测验》量表探求内初班学生的学习适应性特征。结果显示:石河子内初班学生的学习适应性与全国常模基本一致,学习适应不良主要集中在学习技术和学习态度上。在性别上、年级上差异不显著,民考民和民考汉学生的学习适应性在全量表上差异显著,总体上民考民学生的学习适应性优于民考汉学生。     

利用深度学习的硬件计数器复用估计算法

利用深度学习方法,为硬件计数器复用(multiplexing,MPX)提供结果精度更高的估计模型。通过对MPX估计得到的结果与实际采集的真实数据进行相似性分析,证明相同程序多次运行之间得到的硬件计数值是线性相关的。采用神经网络多层感知器(multilayer perceptron,MLP)和双向门控神经网络(bidirectional gated recurrent unit, Bi-GRU)这2种深度学习模型,对MPX数据进行拟合。基于动态时间规整(dynamic time warping, DTW),提出一个全新的评估MPX数据精度的指标DTW-cost。实验结果表明,同时收集15个硬件事件数据时,MLP方法拟合得到的13个高性能计算应用平均准确率比现有使用最广的固定插值法高出10.53%,最多可提升19.8%;而在MLP表现较差的事件上,Bi-GRU方法得到的平均准确率提升了28.8%。     

早期可靠性数据的统计分析及其应用

在大型复杂产品研制过程中,通过原理样机的各类试验所获得的早期可靠性数据对产品早期可靠性的评估及可靠性设计具有重要意义。文中利用顺序约束模型研究了早期可靠性数据的处理方法,并将早期可靠性数据评估结果应用于可靠性增长计划的制定,从而有效减短了可靠性增长试验的时间。最后,给出了一个实际例子,以说明上述方法的应用。     

Bayesian strategies for dynamic pricing in e‐commerce

E‐commerce platforms afford retailers unprecedented visibility into customer purchase behavior and provide an environment in which prices can be updated quickly and cheaply in response to changing market conditions. This study investigates dynamic pricing strategies for maximizing revenue in an Internet retail channel by actively learning customers' demand response to price. A general methodology is proposed for dynamically pricing information goods, as well as other nonperishable products for which inventory levels are not an essential consideration in pricing. A Bayesian model of demand uncertainty involving the Dirichlet distribution or a mixture of such distributions as a prior captures a wide range of beliefs about customer demand. We provide both analytic formulas and efficient approximation methods for updating these prior distributions after sales data have been observed. We then investigate several strategies for sequential pricing based on index functions that consider both the potential revenue and the information value of selecting prices. These strategies require a manageable amount of computation, are robust to many types of prior misspecification, and yield high revenues compared to static pricing and passive learning approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

战斗部虚拟试验贝叶斯线性校准预测方法

聚能装药战斗部射虚拟试验中,射流穿深对靶板材料模型参数较敏感。为建立较准确实用的射流穿深预测模型,提出一种贝叶斯线性校准方法,建立物理过程真实值、模型预测值和试验测量值间的统计关系,结合有限的试验数据,校准未知模型参数。实例分析表明,该方法可较好地解决包含各种不确定性的大型复杂计算模型的参数校准问题。